Abtswind 3–1 Weiden: Result & Stats

Abtswind

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Weiden

K. Steinmann 90+2' (pen)

T. Hummer 34'

F. Bozesan 28'

H. Malonga 54'

5/6/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Kräuter Mix Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Abtswind47%

×Draw23%

Weiden30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbtswindExpected goals in this matchWeiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.35

Abtswind

1.75

Weiden

1.35

Abtswind creates 30% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 50 away

1.73

creates per match

1.32

1.37

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Abtswind

1.73

Weiden

1.32

allows per match

Abtswind

1.37

Weiden

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par

Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Weiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw

70%

Abtswind or Weiden

77%

Draw or Weiden

53%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+

25%

Weiden wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals

83%

Abtswind 2+ goals

52%

Abtswind 3+ goals

25%

Weiden 1+ goals

74%

Weiden 2+ goals

39%

Weiden 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)

61%

Weiden (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Weiden attack 1.32 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Abtswind scores more

47%

level

23%

Weiden scores more

30%

Abtswind at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

F. Bozesan

34'

T. Hummer

54'

H. Malonga

90+2'

K. SteinmannPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff