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Abtswind vs Karlburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karlburg
Karlburg
5/2/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32Kräuter Mix Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Abtswind63%
×Draw19%
Karlburg18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
2.30
Karlburg
1.16

Abtswind creates 98% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
Karlburg
0.94

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
Karlburg
2.88

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
Karlburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Karlburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
82%
Abtswind or Karlburg
81%
Draw or Karlburg
37%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
40%
Karlburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
90%
Abtswind 2+ goals
67%
Abtswind 3+ goals
40%
Karlburg 1+ goals
69%
Karlburg 2+ goals
32%
Karlburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
78%
Karlburg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Karlburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Karlburg defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.30

Karlburg attack 0.94 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Abtswind scores more
63%
level
19%
Karlburg scores more
18%

Abtswind at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abtswind vs Karlburg

Abtswind beat Karlburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Kräuter Mix Arena in Abtswind.