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Abtswind vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
A. Dussler 40' (pen)
J. Rehwald 53'
3/29/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 27Kräuter Mix Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Abtswind47%
×Draw23%
Jahn Regensburg II30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
1.82
Jahn Regensburg II
1.43

Abtswind creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
Jahn Regensburg II
1.48

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
Jahn Regensburg II
1.91

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
70%
Abtswind or Jahn Regensburg II
77%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
53%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
25%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
84%
Abtswind 2+ goals
54%
Abtswind 3+ goals
27%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
76%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
42%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
61%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.48 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Abtswind scores more
47%
level
23%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
30%

Abtswind at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
A. DusslerPenalty
53'
J. Rehwald

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Abtswind 1–1 Jahn Regensburg II

Abtswind and Jahn Regensburg II drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Dussler (40' pen), J. Rehwald (53').

The match was played at Kräuter Mix Arena in Abtswind.