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Abtswind vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
A. Dussler 49'
V. Ursu 42'
T. Lang 81'
11/16/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Kunstrasenspielfeld Alte Untersambacher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Abtswind61%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Münchberg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
2.22
Eintracht Münchberg
1.16

Abtswind creates 91% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
81%
Abtswind or Eintracht Münchberg
80%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
39%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
38%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
89%
Abtswind 2+ goals
65%
Abtswind 3+ goals
38%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
69%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
32%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
76%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.22

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Abtswind scores more
61%
level
20%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
19%

Abtswind at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
V. Ursu
49'
A. Dussler
81'
T. Lang
82'
F. Arens

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Abtswind 2–1 Eintracht Münchberg

Abtswind beat Eintracht Münchberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on November 16, 2024.

Goals: V. Ursu (42'), A. Dussler (49'), T. Lang (81').

The match was played at Kunstrasenspielfeld Alte Untersambacher in Abtswind.