Abtswind 3–1 Donaustauf: Result & Stats

Abtswind

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Donaustauf

T. Ceraj 83', 74'

A. Cosar 67'

L. Peric 64'

4/12/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32Kräuter Mix Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Abtswind45%

×Draw23%

Donaustauf32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbtswindExpected goals in this matchDonaustauf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.50

Abtswind

1.83

Donaustauf

1.50

Abtswind creates 22% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

1.73

creates per match

1.63

1.37

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Abtswind

1.73

Donaustauf

1.63

allows per match

Abtswind

1.37

Donaustauf

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par

Donaustauf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Donaustauf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw

68%

Abtswind or Donaustauf

77%

Draw or Donaustauf

55%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+

25%

Donaustauf wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals

84%

Abtswind 2+ goals

54%

Abtswind 3+ goals

28%

Donaustauf 1+ goals

78%

Donaustauf 2+ goals

44%

Donaustauf 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)

59%

Donaustauf (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Donaustauf away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Donaustauf defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.83

Donaustauf attack 1.63 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Abtswind scores more

45%

level

23%

Donaustauf scores more

32%

Abtswind at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

L. Peric

67'

A. Cosar

74'

T. Ceraj

83'

T. Ceraj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff