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Abtswind vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Coburg
Coburg
3/23/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 29Kräuter Mix Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Abtswind51%
×Draw22%
Coburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
2.04
Coburg
1.45

Abtswind creates 41% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
Coburg
2.35

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
73%
Abtswind or Coburg
78%
Draw or Coburg
49%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
30%
Coburg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
87%
Abtswind 2+ goals
60%
Abtswind 3+ goals
33%
Coburg 1+ goals
77%
Coburg 2+ goals
42%
Coburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
65%
Coburg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Coburg attack 1.53 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Abtswind scores more
51%
level
22%
Coburg scores more
27%

Abtswind at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abtswind vs Coburg

Abtswind beat Coburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Kräuter Mix Arena in Abtswind.