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Abtswind vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cham
Cham
F. Schmitt 66'
E. Medineli 25'
4/25/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Kräuter Mix Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Abtswind42%
×Draw24%
Cham34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
1.61
Cham
1.41

Abtswind creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
Cham
1.44

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
Cham
1.49

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
66%
Abtswind or Cham
76%
Draw or Cham
58%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
21%
Cham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
80%
Abtswind 2+ goals
48%
Abtswind 3+ goals
22%
Cham 1+ goals
76%
Cham 2+ goals
41%
Cham 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
56%
Cham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cham attack 1.44 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Abtswind scores more
42%
level
24%
Cham scores more
34%

Abtswind at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
E. Medineli
66'
F. Schmitt
84'
V. Seebauer
84'
V. Seebauer
90+4'
F. Voigt
90+4'
F. Voigt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Abtswind 1–1 Cham

Abtswind and Cham drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 25, 2025.

Goals: E. Medineli (25'), F. Schmitt (66').

The match was played at Kräuter Mix Arena in Abtswind.