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Abtswind vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
M. Wachter 89'
K. Steinmann 66'
F. Bozesan 59', 47'
3/18/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 24Kunstrasenspielfeld Alte Untersambacher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Abtswind48%
×Draw24%
ATSV Erlangen28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
1.71
ATSV Erlangen
1.26

Abtswind creates 36% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
72%
Abtswind or ATSV Erlangen
76%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
52%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
26%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
82%
Abtswind 2+ goals
51%
Abtswind 3+ goals
24%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
72%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
36%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
63%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Abtswind scores more
48%
level
24%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
28%

Abtswind at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
F. Bozesan
59'
F. Bozesan
66'
K. Steinmann
89'
M. Wachter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Abtswind 4–0 ATSV Erlangen

Abtswind beat ATSV Erlangen 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 18, 2023.

Goals: F. Bozesan (47', 59'), K. Steinmann (66'), M. Wachter (89').

The match was played at Kunstrasenspielfeld Alte Untersambacher in Abtswind.