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Abtswind vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
11/30/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 23Kunstrasenspielfeld Alte Untersambacher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Abtswind44%
×Draw23%
ASV Neumarkt33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
1.75
ASV Neumarkt
1.48

Abtswind creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
67%
Abtswind or ASV Neumarkt
77%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
56%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
23%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
83%
Abtswind 2+ goals
52%
Abtswind 3+ goals
25%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
77%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
43%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
57%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Abtswind scores more
44%
level
23%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
33%

Abtswind at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Abtswind will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abtswind vs ASV Neumarkt

Abtswind and ASV Neumarkt drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenspielfeld Alte Untersambacher in Abtswind.