ABPN Canaã 3–0 Teixeira de Freitas: Result & Stats

ABPN Canaã

FT

3 – 0

Teixeira de Freitas

10/25/2020

Baiano - 2 · Round 1Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ABPN Canaã78%

×Draw15%

Teixeira de Freitas7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABPN CanaãExpected goals in this matchTeixeira de Freitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.60

ABPN Canaã

2.48

Teixeira de Freitas

0.60

ABPN Canaã creates 313% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.71

creates per match

0.00

1.21

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

ABPN Canaã

1.71

Teixeira de Freitas

0.00

allows per match

ABPN Canaã

1.21

Teixeira de Freitas

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABPN Canaã ↓

Teixeira de Freitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

ABPN Canaã or draw

93%

ABPN Canaã or Teixeira de Freitas

85%

Draw or Teixeira de Freitas

22%

Winning margin

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

56%

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

92%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

70%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

44%

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals

45%

Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals

12%

Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

92%

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABPN Canaã at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Teixeira de Freitas away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABPN Canaã attack 1.71 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.48

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

ABPN Canaã scores more

78%

level

15%

Teixeira de Freitas scores more

7%

ABPN Canaã at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "ABPN Canaã will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff