ABPN Canaã 1–2 Jequié: Result & Stats | Baiano - 2

ABPN Canaã

FT

1 – 2

Jequié

7/3/2022

Baiano - 2 · Round 10Estádio José Almeida dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

ABPN Canaã39%

×Draw27%

Jequié34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABPN CanaãExpected goals in this matchJequié

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.21

ABPN Canaã

1.32

Jequié

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

1.21

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

ABPN Canaã

1.71

Jequié

1.21

allows per match

ABPN Canaã

1.21

Jequié

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Jequié+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABPN Canaã ↓

Jequié →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

ABPN Canaã or draw

66%

ABPN Canaã or Jequié

73%

Draw or Jequié

61%

Winning margin

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

18%

Jequié wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

73%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

38%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

15%

Jequié 1+ goals

70%

Jequié 2+ goals

34%

Jequié 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

54%

Jequié (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABPN Canaã at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Jequié away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABPN Canaã attack 1.71 + Jequié defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.32

Jequié attack 1.21 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ABPN Canaã scores more

39%

level

27%

Jequié scores more

34%

ABPN Canaã at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ABPN Canaã will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff