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ABPN Canaã vs Jacobinense — Baiano - 2 2019

ABPN Canaã
ABPN Canaã
FT
1 – 2
Jacobinense
Jacobinense
5/23/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 1Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

ABPN Canaã53%
×Draw24%
Jacobinense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABPN Canaã
1.71
Jacobinense
1.05

ABPN Canaã creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

ABPN Canaã
1.71
Jacobinense
0.90

allows per match

ABPN Canaã
1.21
Jacobinense
1.70

finishing

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par
Jacobinense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABPN Canaã ↓

Jacobinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ABPN Canaã or draw
77%
ABPN Canaã or Jacobinense
76%
Draw or Jacobinense
47%

Winning margin

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+
29%
Jacobinense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals
82%
ABPN Canaã 2+ goals
51%
ABPN Canaã 3+ goals
24%
Jacobinense 1+ goals
65%
Jacobinense 2+ goals
28%
Jacobinense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)
69%
Jacobinense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABPN Canaã at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Jacobinense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABPN Canaã attack 1.71 + Jacobinense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jacobinense attack 0.90 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ABPN Canaã scores more
53%
level
24%
Jacobinense scores more
23%

ABPN Canaã at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ABPN Canaã will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: ABPN Canaã 1–2 Jacobinense

Jacobinense beat ABPN Canaã 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on May 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.