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ABPN Canaã vs Jacobina — Baiano - 2 2019

ABPN Canaã
ABPN Canaã
FT
1 – 1
Jacobina
Jacobina
6/19/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 7Estádio José Almeida dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

ABPN Canaã42%
×Draw25%
Jacobina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABPN Canaã
1.54
Jacobina
1.32

ABPN Canaã creates 17% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

ABPN Canaã
1.71
Jacobina
1.44

allows per match

ABPN Canaã
1.21
Jacobina
1.38

finishing

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par
Jacobina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABPN Canaã ↓

Jacobina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ABPN Canaã or draw
67%
ABPN Canaã or Jacobina
75%
Draw or Jacobina
58%

Winning margin

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+
21%
Jacobina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals
79%
ABPN Canaã 2+ goals
45%
ABPN Canaã 3+ goals
20%
Jacobina 1+ goals
73%
Jacobina 2+ goals
38%
Jacobina 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)
57%
Jacobina (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABPN Canaã at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Jacobina away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABPN Canaã attack 1.71 + Jacobina defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jacobina attack 1.44 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABPN Canaã scores more
42%
level
25%
Jacobina scores more
33%

ABPN Canaã at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ABPN Canaã will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ABPN Canaã vs Jacobina

ABPN Canaã and Jacobina drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Almeida dos Santos in Canarana, Bahia.