ABPN Canaã 3–1 Itabuna: Result & Stats | Baiano - 2

ABPN Canaã

FT

3 – 1

Itabuna

6/29/2022

Baiano - 2 · Round 9Estádio José Almeida dos Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ABPN Canaã35%

×Draw25%

Itabuna40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABPN CanaãExpected goals in this matchItabuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.45

ABPN Canaã

1.35

Itabuna

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

1.69

1.21

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

ABPN Canaã

1.71

Itabuna

1.69

allows per match

ABPN Canaã

1.21

Itabuna

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABPN Canaã ↓

Itabuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ABPN Canaã or draw

60%

ABPN Canaã or Itabuna

75%

Draw or Itabuna

65%

Winning margin

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

16%

Itabuna wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

74%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

39%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

15%

Itabuna 1+ goals

77%

Itabuna 2+ goals

42%

Itabuna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

47%

Itabuna (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABPN Canaã at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Itabuna away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABPN Canaã attack 1.71 + Itabuna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Itabuna attack 1.69 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ABPN Canaã scores more

35%

level

25%

Itabuna scores more

40%

Itabuna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff