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ABPN Canaã vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

ABPN Canaã
ABPN Canaã
FT
0 – 1
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
11/8/2020Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Joviniano Dourado Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

ABPN Canaã34%
×Draw26%
Colo Colo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABPN Canaã
1.26
Colo Colo
1.40

Colo Colo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

ABPN Canaã
1.71
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

ABPN Canaã
1.21
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABPN Canaã ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

ABPN Canaã or draw
60%
ABPN Canaã or Colo Colo
74%
Draw or Colo Colo
66%

Winning margin

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+
15%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals
72%
ABPN Canaã 2+ goals
36%
ABPN Canaã 3+ goals
13%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
75%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
41%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)
46%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABPN Canaã at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABPN Canaã attack 1.71 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.26

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ABPN Canaã scores more
34%
level
26%
Colo Colo scores more
40%

Colo Colo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ABPN Canaã vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat ABPN Canaã 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Joviniano Dourado Lopes in Irecê, Bahia.