Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Abilashehar vs Shabab Al-Ghar — Premier League 2019

Abilashehar
Abilashehar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shabab Al-Ghar
Shabab Al-Ghar
1/2/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Abilashehar34%
×Draw27%
Shabab Al-Ghar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abilashehar
1.19
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.31

Shabab Al-Ghar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Abilashehar
0.74
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.00

allows per match

Abilashehar
1.63
Shabab Al-Ghar
1.63

finishing

Abilashehar+0.00on par
Shabab Al-Ghar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abilashehar ↓

Shabab Al-Ghar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Abilashehar or draw
61%
Abilashehar or Shabab Al-Ghar
73%
Draw or Shabab Al-Ghar
66%

Winning margin

Abilashehar wins by 2+
14%
Shabab Al-Ghar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Abilashehar 1+ goals
70%
Abilashehar 2+ goals
33%
Abilashehar 3+ goals
12%
Shabab Al-Ghar 1+ goals
73%
Shabab Al-Ghar 2+ goals
38%
Shabab Al-Ghar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abilashehar (draw refunded)
46%
Shabab Al-Ghar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abilashehar at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Shabab Al-Ghar away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abilashehar attack 0.74 + Shabab Al-Ghar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Shabab Al-Ghar attack 1.00 + Abilashehar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Abilashehar scores more
34%
level
27%
Shabab Al-Ghar scores more
39%

Shabab Al-Ghar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shabab Al-Ghar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abilashehar vs Shabab Al-Ghar

Shabab Al-Ghar beat Abilashehar 2-1 in Premier League on January 2, 2026.