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Abilashehar vs Ittihad Gharyan SC — Premier League 2019

Abilashehar
Abilashehar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ittihad Gharyan SC
Ittihad Gharyan SC
4/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Abilashehar36%
×Draw30%
Ittihad Gharyan SC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abilashehar
1.06
Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Abilashehar
0.74
Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.38

allows per match

Abilashehar
1.63
Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.38

finishing

Abilashehar+0.00on par
Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abilashehar ↓

Ittihad Gharyan SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Abilashehar or draw
67%
Abilashehar or Ittihad Gharyan SC
70%
Draw or Ittihad Gharyan SC
64%

Winning margin

Abilashehar wins by 2+
14%
Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Abilashehar 1+ goals
65%
Abilashehar 2+ goals
29%
Abilashehar 3+ goals
9%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals
63%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals
26%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Abilashehar (draw refunded)
52%
Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abilashehar at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abilashehar attack 0.74 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.38 + Abilashehar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Abilashehar scores more
36%
level
30%
Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more
33%

Abilashehar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Abilashehar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abilashehar vs Ittihad Gharyan SC

Ittihad Gharyan SC beat Abilashehar 1-0 in Premier League on April 10, 2026.