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Abilashehar vs Al Watan — Premier League 2019

Abilashehar
Abilashehar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al Watan
Al Watan
2/12/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Abilashehar29%
×Draw28%
Al Watan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abilashehar
1.02
Al Watan
1.31

Al Watan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

Abilashehar
0.74
Al Watan
1.00

allows per match

Abilashehar
1.63
Al Watan
1.29

finishing

Abilashehar+0.00on par
Al Watan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abilashehar ↓

Al Watan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Abilashehar or draw
57%
Abilashehar or Al Watan
72%
Draw or Al Watan
71%

Winning margin

Abilashehar wins by 2+
11%
Al Watan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Abilashehar 1+ goals
64%
Abilashehar 2+ goals
27%
Abilashehar 3+ goals
8%
Al Watan 1+ goals
73%
Al Watan 2+ goals
38%
Al Watan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abilashehar (draw refunded)
40%
Al Watan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abilashehar at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Al Watan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abilashehar attack 0.74 + Al Watan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Watan attack 1.00 + Abilashehar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Abilashehar scores more
29%
level
28%
Al Watan scores more
43%

Al Watan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Watan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abilashehar 1–3 Al Watan

Al Watan beat Abilashehar 3-1 in Premier League on February 12, 2025.