Abilashehar 0–8 Al Shomooa SC: Result & Stats

Abilashehar

FT

0 – 8

HT: 0 – 4

Al Shomooa SC

4/25/2026

Premier League · Group B - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Abilashehar26%

×Draw25%

Al Shomooa SC49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbilasheharExpected goals in this matchAl Shomooa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.63

Abilashehar

1.12

Al Shomooa SC

1.63

Al Shomooa SC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

0.74

creates per match

1.63

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Abilashehar

0.74

Al Shomooa SC

1.63

allows per match

Abilashehar

1.63

Al Shomooa SC

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abilashehar+0.00on par

Al Shomooa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abilashehar ↓

Al Shomooa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Abilashehar or draw

51%

Abilashehar or Al Shomooa SC

75%

Draw or Al Shomooa SC

74%

Winning margin

Abilashehar wins by 2+

10%

Al Shomooa SC wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Abilashehar 1+ goals

67%

Abilashehar 2+ goals

31%

Abilashehar 3+ goals

10%

Al Shomooa SC 1+ goals

80%

Al Shomooa SC 2+ goals

48%

Al Shomooa SC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Abilashehar (draw refunded)

35%

Al Shomooa SC (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abilashehar at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Al Shomooa SC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abilashehar attack 0.74 + Al Shomooa SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al Shomooa SC attack 1.63 + Abilashehar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Abilashehar scores more

26%

level

25%

Al Shomooa SC scores more

49%

Al Shomooa SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Shomooa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff