Abilashehar 0–1 Al Ahli Tripoli: Result & Stats

Abilashehar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ahli Tripoli

4/11/2025

Premier League · West - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Abilashehar15%

×Draw26%

Al Ahli Tripoli59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbilasheharExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Tripoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.60

1.49

Abilashehar

0.60

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.49

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 148% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

0.74

creates per match

1.35

1.63

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Abilashehar

0.74

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.35

allows per match

Abilashehar

1.63

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abilashehar+0.00on par

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abilashehar ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–118%

0–214%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Abilashehar or draw

41%

Abilashehar or Al Ahli Tripoli

74%

Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli

85%

Winning margin

Abilashehar wins by 2+

4%

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Abilashehar 1+ goals

45%

Abilashehar 2+ goals

12%

Abilashehar 3+ goals

2%

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals

77%

Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals

44%

Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Abilashehar (draw refunded)

20%

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abilashehar at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abilashehar attack 0.74 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.60

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 1.35 + Abilashehar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Abilashehar scores more

15%

level

26%

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more

59%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff