Abia Warriors 4–1 Warri Wolves: Result & Stats

Abia Warriors

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Warri Wolves

2/21/2021

NPFL · Round 11Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Abia Warriors59%

×Draw25%

Warri Wolves16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abia WarriorsExpected goals in this matchWarri Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.66

Abia Warriors

1.57

Warri Wolves

0.66

Abia Warriors creates 138% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 51 away

1.50

creates per match

0.71

0.60

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Abia Warriors

1.50

Warri Wolves

0.71

allows per match

Abia Warriors

0.60

Warri Wolves

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Warri Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw

84%

Abia Warriors or Warri Wolves

75%

Draw or Warri Wolves

41%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+

32%

Warri Wolves wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals

79%

Abia Warriors 2+ goals

46%

Abia Warriors 3+ goals

21%

Warri Wolves 1+ goals

48%

Warri Wolves 2+ goals

14%

Warri Wolves 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)

79%

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Warri Wolves attack 0.71 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Abia Warriors scores more

59%

level

25%

Warri Wolves scores more

16%

Abia Warriors at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff