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Abia Warriors vs Remo Stars — NPFL 2019

Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Remo Stars
Remo Stars
I. Fatokun 62'
S. Ismail 49'
9/8/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 1Umuahia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Abia Warriors56%
×Draw27%
Remo Stars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abia Warriors
1.47
Remo Stars
0.69

Abia Warriors creates 113% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 99 away

creates per match

Abia Warriors
1.50
Remo Stars
0.78

allows per match

Abia Warriors
0.60
Remo Stars
1.44

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par
Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Remo Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw
82%
Abia Warriors or Remo Stars
73%
Draw or Remo Stars
44%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+
29%
Remo Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals
77%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
43%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
18%
Remo Stars 1+ goals
50%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
15%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
76%
Remo Stars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Abia Warriors scores more
56%
level
27%
Remo Stars scores more
18%

Abia Warriors at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
49'
S. Ismail
62'
I. Fatokun
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Abia Warriors 0–2 Remo Stars

Remo Stars beat Abia Warriors 2-0 in NPFL on September 8, 2024.

Goals: S. Ismail (49'), I. Fatokun (62').

The match was played at Umuahia Township Stadium in Umuahia.