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Abia Warriors vs Heartland — NPFL 2019

Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heartland
Heartland
11/3/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 10Umuahia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Abia Warriors61%
×Draw26%
Heartland14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abia Warriors
1.51
Heartland
0.56

Abia Warriors creates 170% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 100 away

creates per match

Abia Warriors
1.50
Heartland
0.53

allows per match

Abia Warriors
0.60
Heartland
1.52

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par
Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Heartland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw
86%
Abia Warriors or Heartland
74%
Draw or Heartland
39%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+
32%
Heartland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals
78%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
44%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
19%
Heartland 1+ goals
43%
Heartland 2+ goals
11%
Heartland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
82%
Heartland (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Heartland attack 0.53 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Abia Warriors scores more
61%
level
26%
Heartland scores more
14%

Abia Warriors at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Abia Warriors 0–2 Heartland

Heartland beat Abia Warriors 2-0 in NPFL on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Umuahia Township Stadium in Umuahia.