Abia Warriors 2–1 Heartland: Result & Stats | NPFL

Abia Warriors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Heartland

Y. Hammed 39'

P. Samson 16'

C. Akuneto 43'

7/21/2021

NPFL · Round 34Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Abia Warriors60%

×Draw26%

Heartland14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abia WarriorsExpected goals in this matchHeartland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.57

Abia Warriors

1.51

Heartland

0.57

Abia Warriors creates 165% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 101 away

1.50

creates per match

0.54

0.60

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Abia Warriors

1.50

Heartland

0.54

allows per match

Abia Warriors

0.60

Heartland

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Heartland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Heartland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw

86%

Abia Warriors or Heartland

74%

Draw or Heartland

40%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+

32%

Heartland wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals

78%

Abia Warriors 2+ goals

44%

Abia Warriors 3+ goals

19%

Heartland 1+ goals

43%

Heartland 2+ goals

11%

Heartland 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)

81%

Heartland (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Heartland away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.52 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Heartland defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Heartland attack 0.54 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Abia Warriors scores more

60%

level

26%

Heartland scores more

14%

Abia Warriors at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

P. Samson

39'

Y. Hammed

43'

C. Akuneto

54'

E. Ugwuka

80'

M. Ojobo

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff