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Abia Warriors vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
12/28/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 16Umuahia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Abia Warriors67%
×Draw23%
Gombe United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abia Warriors
1.69
Gombe United
0.48

Abia Warriors creates 252% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 58 away

creates per match

Abia Warriors
1.50
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Abia Warriors
0.60
Gombe United
1.88

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw
90%
Abia Warriors or Gombe United
77%
Draw or Gombe United
33%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+
39%
Gombe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals
82%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
50%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
24%
Gombe United 1+ goals
38%
Gombe United 2+ goals
8%
Gombe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
87%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.88 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Gombe United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Abia Warriors scores more
67%
level
23%
Gombe United scores more
10%

Abia Warriors at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abia Warriors vs Gombe United

Abia Warriors beat Gombe United 3-1 in NPFL on December 28, 2023.

The match was played at Umuahia Township Stadium in Umuahia.