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Abia Warriors vs Enyimba — NPFL 2019

Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Enyimba
Enyimba
5/26/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 33Umuahia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Abia Warriors53%
×Draw28%
Enyimba18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abia Warriors
1.36
Enyimba
0.67

Abia Warriors creates 103% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 130 away

creates per match

Abia Warriors
1.50
Enyimba
0.74

allows per match

Abia Warriors
0.60
Enyimba
1.22

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par
Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Enyimba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw
82%
Abia Warriors or Enyimba
72%
Draw or Enyimba
47%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+
26%
Enyimba wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals
74%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
39%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
16%
Enyimba 1+ goals
49%
Enyimba 2+ goals
15%
Enyimba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
74%
Enyimba (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Abia Warriors scores more
53%
level
28%
Enyimba scores more
18%

Abia Warriors at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Abia Warriors 0–1 Enyimba

Enyimba beat Abia Warriors 1-0 in NPFL on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Umuahia Township Stadium in Umuahia.