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Abha vs Dhamk — Pro League 2018

Abha
Abha
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Dhamk
Dhamk
12/28/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 13Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Abha44%
×Draw25%
Dhamk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abha
1.55
Dhamk
1.27

Abha creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 111 away

creates per match

Abha
1.30
Dhamk
1.06

allows per match

Abha
1.48
Dhamk
1.80

finishing

Abha+0.00on par
Dhamk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Dhamk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Abha or draw
69%
Abha or Dhamk
75%
Draw or Dhamk
56%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+
22%
Dhamk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals
79%
Abha 2+ goals
46%
Abha 3+ goals
20%
Dhamk 1+ goals
72%
Dhamk 2+ goals
36%
Dhamk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)
58%
Dhamk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 77 matches

Dhamk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.30 + Dhamk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dhamk attack 1.06 + Abha defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Abha scores more
44%
level
25%
Dhamk scores more
31%

Abha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Abha 3–2 Dhamk

Abha beat Dhamk 3-2 in Pro League on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.