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Abha vs Al-Raed — Division 1 2018

Abha
Abha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Raed
Al-Raed
1/17/2026Division 1Division 1 · Round 17Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Abha44%
×Draw25%
Al-Raed31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abha
1.56
Al-Raed
1.26

Abha creates 24% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Abha
1.65
Al-Raed
1.59

allows per match

Abha
0.92
Al-Raed
1.47

finishing

Abha+0.00on par
Al-Raed+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Al-Raed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Abha or draw
69%
Abha or Al-Raed
75%
Draw or Al-Raed
56%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+
22%
Al-Raed wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals
79%
Abha 2+ goals
46%
Abha 3+ goals
21%
Al-Raed 1+ goals
72%
Al-Raed 2+ goals
36%
Al-Raed 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)
59%
Al-Raed (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Al-Raed away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.65 + Al-Raed defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Al-Raed attack 1.59 + Abha defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Abha scores more
44%
level
25%
Al-Raed scores more
31%

Abha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Abha 2–1 Al-Raed

Abha beat Al-Raed 2-1 in Division 1 on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.