Abha 3–2 Al Okhdood: Result & Stats | Pro League

Abha

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Al Okhdood

11/4/2023

Pro League · Round 12Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Abha45%

×Draw26%

Al Okhdood29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbhaExpected goals in this matchAl Okhdood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.12

Abha

1.48

Al Okhdood

1.12

Abha creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 51 away

1.30

creates per match

0.76

1.48

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Abha

1.30

Al Okhdood

0.76

allows per match

Abha

1.48

Al Okhdood

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abha+0.00on par

Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Al Okhdood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Abha or draw

71%

Abha or Al Okhdood

74%

Draw or Al Okhdood

55%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+

22%

Al Okhdood wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals

77%

Abha 2+ goals

43%

Abha 3+ goals

19%

Al Okhdood 1+ goals

67%

Al Okhdood 2+ goals

31%

Al Okhdood 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)

61%

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 77 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.30 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Abha defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Abha scores more

45%

level

26%

Al Okhdood scores more

29%

Abha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff