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Abha vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Pro League 2018

Abha
Abha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
5/23/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 33Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Abha41%
×Draw26%
Al Khaleej Saihat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abha
1.45
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.29

Abha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 66 away

creates per match

Abha
1.30
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.11

allows per match

Abha
1.48
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.59

finishing

Abha+0.00on par
Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Abha or draw
66%
Abha or Al Khaleej Saihat
74%
Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat
59%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+
20%
Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals
77%
Abha 2+ goals
42%
Abha 3+ goals
18%
Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
72%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
37%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)
55%
Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 77 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.30 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.11 + Abha defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Abha scores more
41%
level
26%
Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
34%

Abha at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Abha 2–1 Al Khaleej Saihat

Abha beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 in Pro League on May 23, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.