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Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — Pro League 2018

Abha
Abha
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
8/14/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 1Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Abha23%
×Draw22%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abha
1.14
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.89

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 126 away

creates per match

Abha
1.30
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.29

allows per match

Abha
1.48
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.98

finishing

Abha+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Abha or draw
45%
Abha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
78%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
77%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+
9%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals
68%
Abha 2+ goals
32%
Abha 3+ goals
11%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
85%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
56%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)
29%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.48 · 77 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.30 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.29 + Abha defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Abha scores more
23%
level
22%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
55%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Abha 3-1 in Pro League on August 14, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.