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Abha vs Al-Hazm — Division 1 2018

Abha
Abha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
3/4/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Abha39%
×Draw26%
Al-Hazm35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abha
1.37
Al-Hazm
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

creates per match

Abha
1.65
Al-Hazm
1.68

allows per match

Abha
0.92
Al-Hazm
1.09

finishing

Abha+0.00on par
Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Al-Hazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Abha or draw
65%
Abha or Al-Hazm
74%
Draw or Al-Hazm
61%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+
18%
Al-Hazm wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals
75%
Abha 2+ goals
40%
Abha 3+ goals
16%
Al-Hazm 1+ goals
73%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
37%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)
52%
Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.09 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.65 + Al-Hazm defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.37

Al-Hazm attack 1.68 + Abha defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Abha scores more
39%
level
26%
Al-Hazm scores more
35%

Abha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Abha 1 – 1 Al-Hazm

Abha and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in Division 1 on March 4, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.