ABFF U19 2–1 Slonim: Result & Stats | 1. Division

ABFF U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slonim

I. Gubarevich 79', 37'

A. Starovoytov 54'

11/23/2025

1. Division · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ABFF U1947%

×Draw25%

Slonim28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABFF U19Expected goals in this matchSlonim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.18

ABFF U19

1.61

Slonim

1.18

ABFF U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 135 away

1.35

creates per match

0.95

1.41

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

ABFF U19

1.35

Slonim

0.95

allows per match

ABFF U19

1.41

Slonim

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABFF U19+0.00on par

Slonim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABFF U19 ↓

Slonim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ABFF U19 or draw

72%

ABFF U19 or Slonim

75%

Draw or Slonim

53%

Winning margin

ABFF U19 wins by 2+

24%

Slonim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ABFF U19 1+ goals

80%

ABFF U19 2+ goals

48%

ABFF U19 3+ goals

22%

Slonim 1+ goals

69%

Slonim 2+ goals

33%

Slonim 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ABFF U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Slonim (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABFF U19 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Slonim away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.88 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABFF U19 attack 1.35 + Slonim defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Slonim attack 0.95 + ABFF U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ABFF U19 scores more

47%

level

25%

Slonim scores more

28%

ABFF U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ABFF U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

T. Tkachev

26'

R. Mushulov← Z. Abdurakhmanov

37'

I. Gubarevich↳ A. Poluyanov

46'

E. Snapkov← T. Tkachev

46'

M. Klunok← M. Tkatsevich

46'

E. Kudinov← V. Papava

54'

A. Starovoytov↳ A. Chizh

62'

U. Fezhanka← A. Poluyanov

66'

S. Kazmerchuk

73'

V. Pulkach← B. Gusev

76'

M. Pashkevich← E. Mashagin

76'

A. Kuzin← A. Konev

79'

I. Gubarevich↳ I. Viarenich

82'

P. Sheremet← G. Mishin

82'

M. Montevka← I. Gubarevich

90+1'

E. Kudinov

ABFF

Slonim

44

Agapov

2

Krutorozh

4

▼

Abdurakhm

5

Vechorko

9

▼

Papava

10

▼

Mashagin

12

Semin

15

A

Chizh

16

⚽

Starovoyt

18

▼

Tkatsevic

19

▼

1

2

3

4

5

7

▼

Tkachev

9

⚽2

▼

Gubarevic

13

▼

Mishin

18

A

▼

Poluyanov

20

▼

Gusev

21

A

Viarenich

Manager: S. Sosnovskiy

46'▲E. Snapkov←▼T. Tkachev

62'▲U. Fezhanka←▼A. Poluyanov

73'▲V. Pulkach←▼B. Gusev

82'▲P. Sheremet←▼G. Mishin

82'▲M. Montevka←▼I. Gubarevich

ABFF U19 substitutes

12Chuprinskiy8Fezhanka15Sheremet17Galiakhmedov19Snapkov23Pulkach25Montevka

Manager: S. Podretskiy

26'▲R. Mushulov←▼Z. Abdurakhmanov

46'▲M. Klunok←▼M. Tkatsevich

46'▲E. Kudinov←▼V. Papava

76'▲M. Pashkevich←▼E. Mashagin

76'▲A. Kuzin←▼A. Konev

Slonim substitutes

76Miskevich6Pashkevich7Klunok8Mushulov11Dzukaev13Kudinov17Gizhevskiy21Kuzin