Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ABFF U17 vs Volna — 1. Division 2018

ABFF U17
ABFF U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Volna
Volna
8/24/20241. Division1. Division · Round 21Trėnirovachny kompleks ABFF Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ABFF U1732%
×Draw27%
Volna42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABFF U17
1.14
Volna
1.35

Volna creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 127 away

creates per match

ABFF U17
0.76
Volna
1.29

allows per match

ABFF U17
1.41
Volna
1.51

finishing

ABFF U17+0.00on par
Volna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABFF U17 ↓

Volna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ABFF U17 or draw
58%
ABFF U17 or Volna
73%
Draw or Volna
68%

Winning margin

ABFF U17 wins by 2+
13%
Volna wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ABFF U17 1+ goals
68%
ABFF U17 2+ goals
32%
ABFF U17 3+ goals
11%
Volna 1+ goals
74%
Volna 2+ goals
39%
Volna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)
43%
Volna (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABFF U17 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Volna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.51 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABFF U17 attack 0.76 + Volna defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.14

Volna attack 1.29 + ABFF U17 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABFF U17 scores more
32%
level
27%
Volna scores more
42%

Volna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Volna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ABFF U17 vs Volna

Volna beat ABFF U17 2-0 in 1. Division on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Trėnirovachny kompleks ABFF Iskusstvennoe pole in Minsk.