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ABFF U17 vs Orsha — 1. Division 2018

ABFF U17
ABFF U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Orsha
Orsha
7/19/20241. Division1. Division · Round 15Trėnirovachny kompleks ABFF Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ABFF U1739%
×Draw25%
Orsha36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABFF U17
1.46
Orsha
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 128 away

creates per match

ABFF U17
0.76
Orsha
1.36

allows per match

ABFF U17
1.41
Orsha
2.17

finishing

ABFF U17+0.00on par
Orsha+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABFF U17 ↓

Orsha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ABFF U17 or draw
64%
ABFF U17 or Orsha
75%
Draw or Orsha
61%

Winning margin

ABFF U17 wins by 2+
19%
Orsha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ABFF U17 1+ goals
77%
ABFF U17 2+ goals
43%
ABFF U17 3+ goals
18%
Orsha 1+ goals
75%
Orsha 2+ goals
40%
Orsha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)
52%
Orsha (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABFF U17 at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Orsha away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABFF U17 attack 0.76 + Orsha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Orsha attack 1.36 + ABFF U17 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ABFF U17 scores more
39%
level
25%
Orsha scores more
36%

ABFF U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ABFF U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ABFF U17 1 – 2 Orsha

Orsha beat ABFF U17 2-1 in 1. Division on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Trėnirovachny kompleks ABFF Iskusstvennoe pole in Minsk.