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Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2026

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
10/8/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 8Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Aberdeen48%
×Draw26%
ST Johnstone26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
1.48
ST Johnstone
1.02

Aberdeen creates 45% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 115 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
1.46
ST Johnstone
0.93

allows per match

Aberdeen
1.10
ST Johnstone
1.51

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
74%
Aberdeen or ST Johnstone
74%
Draw or ST Johnstone
52%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
24%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
77%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
43%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
19%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
64%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
27%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
65%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.10 · 127 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.46 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Aberdeen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aberdeen scores more
48%
level
26%
ST Johnstone scores more
26%

Aberdeen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
C. BarronAberdeenAberdeen · M
7.7

Match Events

45+4'
Luís Henriques de Barros LopesGoal cancelled
56'
D. Polvara← J. McGrath
56'
L. Clarkson← G. Shinnie
65'
C. Kane← L. Jephcott
72'
C. MacPherson← M. Kucheriavyi
76'
Drey Wright
78'
S. May← D. Wright
80'
E. Sokler← N. Devlin
81'
Luke Robinson

Possession

56%Aberdeen

Shots

10Aberdeen

Pass accuracy

54%Aberdeen

Statistics

AberdeenST
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots9
5Corners3
11Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots9
3On Target0
5Off Target5
2Blocked4
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
449Total Passes361
330Accurate Passes228
73%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Premiership: Aberdeen 0–0 ST Johnstone

Aberdeen and ST Johnstone drew 0-0 in Premiership on October 8, 2023.

Aberdeen controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.