Aberdeen 2–0 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Aberdeen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ST Johnstone

Duk 84', 74'

1/7/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 21Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Aberdeen48%

×Draw26%

ST Johnstone26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

Aberdeen

1.48

ST Johnstone

1.02

Aberdeen creates 45% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 115 away

1.46

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.46

ST Johnstone

0.93

allows per match

Aberdeen

1.10

ST Johnstone

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

74%

Aberdeen or ST Johnstone

74%

Draw or ST Johnstone

52%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

24%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

77%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

43%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

19%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

64%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

27%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

65%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.10 · 127 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.46 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Aberdeen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aberdeen scores more

48%

level

26%

ST Johnstone scores more

26%

Aberdeen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Duk

Aberdeen · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

Graham Carey

24'

DukGoal cancelled

61'

V. Besuijen← B. Miovski

61'

J. Hayes← M. Kennedy

62'

Cameron MacPherson

65'

Alex Mitchell

66'

D. Wotherspoon← J. Murphy

74'

Duk↳ V. Besuijen

76'

N. Clark← L. Gordon

81'

A. Crawford← C. MacPherson

81'

T. Bair← S. May

84'

Duk↳ J. Hayes

87'

C. Ramírez← L. Clarkson

88'

R. Duncan← Duk

90+1'

C. Barron← G. Shinnie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AberdeenST

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots10

9Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target1

3Off Target7

6Blocked2

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

443Total Passes360

333Accurate Passes242

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2