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Aberdeen vs Raith Rovers — League Cup 2018

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
7/24/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 8Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aberdeen72%
×Draw17%
Raith Rovers11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
2.35
Raith Rovers
0.79

Aberdeen creates 197% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
2.70
Raith Rovers
1.27

allows per match

Aberdeen
0.30
Raith Rovers
2.00

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
89%
Aberdeen or Raith Rovers
83%
Draw or Raith Rovers
28%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
49%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
90%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
68%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
41%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
55%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
19%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
87%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 2.70 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Aberdeen defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Aberdeen scores more
72%
level
17%
Raith Rovers scores more
11%

Aberdeen at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Aberdeen 3–0 Raith Rovers

Aberdeen beat Raith Rovers 3-0 in League Cup on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.