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Aberdeen vs PAOK — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
PAOK
PAOK
10/26/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Aberdeen37%
×Draw25%
PAOK38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
1.45
PAOK
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
1.78
PAOK
1.41

allows per match

Aberdeen
1.56
PAOK
1.12

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
62%
Aberdeen or PAOK
75%
Draw or PAOK
63%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
17%
PAOK wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
77%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
42%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
18%
PAOK 1+ goals
77%
PAOK 2+ goals
43%
PAOK 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
49%
PAOK (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.78 + PAOK defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

PAOK attack 1.41 + Aberdeen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aberdeen scores more
37%
level
25%
PAOK scores more
38%

PAOK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aberdeen vs PAOK

PAOK beat Aberdeen 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.