Aberdeen 2–0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Aberdeen

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

2/10/2024

FA Cup · 5th RoundPittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Aberdeen55%

×Draw24%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.92

Aberdeen

1.67

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

0.92

Aberdeen creates 82% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.90

creates per match

1.33

0.50

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.90

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.33

allows per match

Aberdeen

0.50

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

79%

Aberdeen or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

76%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

45%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

30%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

81%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

50%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

23%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

60%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

23%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

73%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.90 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.33 + Aberdeen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aberdeen scores more

55%

level

24%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

21%

Aberdeen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff