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Abengourou vs SOA — Ligue 1 2019

Abengourou
Abengourou
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SOA
SOA
11/21/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Abengourou30%
×Draw31%
SOA40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abengourou
0.90
SOA
1.09

SOA creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 93 away

creates per match

Abengourou
0.82
SOA
1.15

allows per match

Abengourou
1.03
SOA
0.97

finishing

Abengourou+0.00on par
SOA+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abengourou ↓

SOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Abengourou or draw
60%
Abengourou or SOA
69%
Draw or SOA
70%

Winning margin

Abengourou wins by 2+
10%
SOA wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Abengourou 1+ goals
59%
Abengourou 2+ goals
23%
Abengourou 3+ goals
6%
SOA 1+ goals
66%
SOA 2+ goals
30%
SOA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Abengourou (draw refunded)
43%
SOA (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abengourou at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

SOA away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abengourou attack 0.82 + SOA defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

SOA attack 1.15 + Abengourou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Abengourou scores more
30%
level
31%
SOA scores more
40%

SOA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Abengourou 2–2 SOA

Abengourou and SOA drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on November 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.