Abengourou 1–1 Denguélé: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Abengourou

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Denguélé

10/12/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 2Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Abengourou41%

×Draw30%

Denguélé29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbengourouExpected goals in this matchDenguélé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.91

Abengourou

1.15

Denguélé

0.91

Abengourou creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

0.82

creates per match

0.78

1.03

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Abengourou

0.82

Denguélé

0.78

allows per match

Abengourou

1.03

Denguélé

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abengourou+0.00on par

Denguélé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abengourou ↓

Denguélé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Abengourou or draw

71%

Abengourou or Denguélé

70%

Draw or Denguélé

59%

Winning margin

Abengourou wins by 2+

17%

Denguélé wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Abengourou 1+ goals

68%

Abengourou 2+ goals

32%

Abengourou 3+ goals

11%

Denguélé 1+ goals

60%

Denguélé 2+ goals

23%

Denguélé 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Abengourou (draw refunded)

59%

Denguélé (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abengourou at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Denguélé away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abengourou attack 0.82 + Denguélé defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Denguélé attack 0.78 + Abengourou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Abengourou scores more

41%

level

30%

Denguélé scores more

29%

Abengourou at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Abengourou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff