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Abengourou vs ASEC Mimosas — Ligue 1 2019

Abengourou
Abengourou
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
5/8/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Abengourou22%
×Draw30%
ASEC Mimosas48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abengourou
0.74
ASEC Mimosas
1.23

ASEC Mimosas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 89 away

creates per match

Abengourou
0.82
ASEC Mimosas
1.42

allows per match

Abengourou
1.03
ASEC Mimosas
0.66

finishing

Abengourou+0.00on par
ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abengourou ↓

ASEC Mimosas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Abengourou or draw
52%
Abengourou or ASEC Mimosas
70%
Draw or ASEC Mimosas
78%

Winning margin

Abengourou wins by 2+
7%
ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Abengourou 1+ goals
52%
Abengourou 2+ goals
17%
Abengourou 3+ goals
4%
ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
71%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
35%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Abengourou (draw refunded)
32%
ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abengourou at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abengourou attack 0.82 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.42 + Abengourou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Abengourou scores more
22%
level
30%
ASEC Mimosas scores more
48%

ASEC Mimosas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abengourou vs ASEC Mimosas

Abengourou and ASEC Mimosas drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.