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Abeilles vs Réal Sport — Championnat National 2019

Abeilles
Abeilles
FT
1 – 2
Réal Sport
Réal Sport
5/10/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 30Stade Tchaourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Abeilles43%
×Draw32%
Réal Sport26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abeilles
1.09
Réal Sport
0.78

Abeilles creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 82 away

creates per match

Abeilles
1.03
Réal Sport
0.46

allows per match

Abeilles
1.10
Réal Sport
1.16

finishing

Abeilles+0.00on par
Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abeilles ↓

Réal Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Abeilles or draw
74%
Abeilles or Réal Sport
68%
Draw or Réal Sport
57%

Winning margin

Abeilles wins by 2+
17%
Réal Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Abeilles 1+ goals
66%
Abeilles 2+ goals
30%
Abeilles 3+ goals
10%
Réal Sport 1+ goals
54%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
18%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Abeilles (draw refunded)
62%
Réal Sport (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abeilles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abeilles attack 1.03 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Abeilles defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Abeilles scores more
43%
level
32%
Réal Sport scores more
26%

Abeilles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Abeilles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abeilles vs Réal Sport

Réal Sport beat Abeilles 2-1 in Championnat National on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Tchaourou in Tchaourou.