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Abeilles vs Espoir Savalou — Championnat National 2019

Abeilles
Abeilles
FT
1 – 2
Espoir Savalou
Espoir Savalou
10/5/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 2Stade Tchaourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Abeilles35%
×Draw31%
Espoir Savalou34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abeilles
1.03
Espoir Savalou
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 101 away

creates per match

Abeilles
1.03
Espoir Savalou
0.89

allows per match

Abeilles
1.10
Espoir Savalou
1.03

finishing

Abeilles+0.00on par
Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abeilles ↓

Espoir Savalou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Abeilles or draw
66%
Abeilles or Espoir Savalou
69%
Draw or Espoir Savalou
65%

Winning margin

Abeilles wins by 2+
14%
Espoir Savalou wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Abeilles 1+ goals
64%
Abeilles 2+ goals
28%
Abeilles 3+ goals
9%
Espoir Savalou 1+ goals
63%
Espoir Savalou 2+ goals
26%
Espoir Savalou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Abeilles (draw refunded)
51%
Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abeilles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Espoir Savalou away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abeilles attack 1.03 + Espoir Savalou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Espoir Savalou attack 0.89 + Abeilles defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Abeilles scores more
35%
level
31%
Espoir Savalou scores more
34%

Abeilles at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Abeilles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abeilles vs Espoir Savalou

Espoir Savalou beat Abeilles 2-1 in Championnat National on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Tchaourou in Tchaourou.