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Abeilles vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

Abeilles
Abeilles
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
4/20/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 7Stade Tchaourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Abeilles43%
×Draw28%
Dynamo Unacob28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abeilles
1.27
Dynamo Unacob
0.96

Abeilles creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 87 away

creates per match

Abeilles
1.03
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

Abeilles
1.10
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

Abeilles+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abeilles ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Abeilles or draw
72%
Abeilles or Dynamo Unacob
72%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
57%

Winning margin

Abeilles wins by 2+
20%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Abeilles 1+ goals
72%
Abeilles 2+ goals
36%
Abeilles 3+ goals
14%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
62%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
25%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Abeilles (draw refunded)
61%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abeilles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abeilles attack 1.03 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Abeilles defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Abeilles scores more
43%
level
28%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
28%

Abeilles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Abeilles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Abeilles 3–3 Dynamo Unacob

Abeilles and Dynamo Unacob drew 3-3 in Championnat National on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Tchaourou in Tchaourou.