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Abdish-Ata vs Talant — Premier League 2026

Abdish-Ata
Abdish-Ata
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Talant
Talant
Barreto 43'
A. Akmatov 40'
11/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Tsentral'nyy Stadion Kant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Abdish-Ata54%
×Draw24%
Talant22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abdish-Ata
1.66
Talant
0.96

Abdish-Ata creates 73% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 61 away

creates per match

Abdish-Ata
1.96
Talant
0.98

allows per match

Abdish-Ata
0.95
Talant
1.36

finishing

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par
Talant+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abdish-Ata ↓

Talant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Abdish-Ata or draw
78%
Abdish-Ata or Talant
76%
Draw or Talant
46%

Winning margin

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+
29%
Talant wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals
81%
Abdish-Ata 2+ goals
49%
Abdish-Ata 3+ goals
23%
Talant 1+ goals
62%
Talant 2+ goals
25%
Talant 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)
71%
Talant (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abdish-Ata at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

Talant away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abdish-Ata attack 1.96 + Talant defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

Talant attack 0.98 + Abdish-Ata defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Abdish-Ata scores more
54%
level
24%
Talant scores more
22%

Abdish-Ata at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
A. Akmatov
43'
Barreto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abdish-Ata 2–0 Talant

Abdish-Ata beat Talant 2-0 in Premier League on November 28, 2024.

Goals: A. Akmatov (40'), Barreto (43').

The match was played at Tsentral'nyy Stadion Kant in Kant.