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Abdish-Ata vs Ozgon — Premier League 2026

Abdish-Ata
Abdish-Ata
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ozgon
Ozgon
B. Zhenishbekov 87'
8/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Tsentralniy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Abdish-Ata44%
×Draw25%
Ozgon31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abdish-Ata
1.55
Ozgon
1.27

Abdish-Ata creates 22% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 20 away

creates per match

Abdish-Ata
1.96
Ozgon
1.60

allows per match

Abdish-Ata
0.95
Ozgon
1.15

finishing

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par
Ozgon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abdish-Ata ↓

Ozgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Abdish-Ata or draw
69%
Abdish-Ata or Ozgon
75%
Draw or Ozgon
56%

Winning margin

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+
22%
Ozgon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals
79%
Abdish-Ata 2+ goals
46%
Abdish-Ata 3+ goals
20%
Ozgon 1+ goals
72%
Ozgon 2+ goals
36%
Ozgon 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)
58%
Ozgon (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abdish-Ata at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

Ozgon away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abdish-Ata attack 1.96 + Ozgon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ozgon attack 1.60 + Abdish-Ata defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Abdish-Ata scores more
44%
level
25%
Ozgon scores more
31%

Abdish-Ata at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
C. Benavides
87'
B. Zhenishbekov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abdish-Ata 1–0 Ozgon

Abdish-Ata beat Ozgon 1-0 in Premier League on August 6, 2025.

Goals: B. Zhenishbekov (87').

The match was played at Tsentralniy Stadion in Kant.