Abdish-Ata 4–0 Dordoi Bishkek: Result & Stats

Abdish-Ata

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dordoi Bishkek

E. Abduzhaparov 90'

E. Atabayev 80'

A. Dzhumashev 62'

K. Zhyrgalbek 41'

8/21/2024

Premier League · Round 17Tsentral'nyy Stadion Kant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Abdish-Ata41%

×Draw25%

Dordoi Bishkek34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abdish-AtaExpected goals in this matchDordoi Bishkek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.34

Abdish-Ata

1.48

Dordoi Bishkek

1.34

Abdish-Ata creates 10% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 98 away

1.96

creates per match

1.73

0.95

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Abdish-Ata

1.96

Dordoi Bishkek

1.73

allows per match

Abdish-Ata

0.95

Dordoi Bishkek

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abdish-Ata ↓

Dordoi Bishkek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Abdish-Ata or draw

66%

Abdish-Ata or Dordoi Bishkek

75%

Draw or Dordoi Bishkek

59%

Winning margin

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+

20%

Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals

77%

Abdish-Ata 2+ goals

43%

Abdish-Ata 3+ goals

19%

Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals

74%

Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals

39%

Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)

54%

Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abdish-Ata at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

Dordoi Bishkek away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.99 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abdish-Ata attack 1.96 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.73 + Abdish-Ata defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Abdish-Ata scores more

41%

level

25%

Dordoi Bishkek scores more

34%

Abdish-Ata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

K. Zhyrgalbek

62'

A. Dzhumashev

80'

E. Atabayev

90'

E. Abduzhaparov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff