Abdish-Ata 3–0 Altyn Asyr: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Abdish-Ata

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Altyn Asyr

9/21/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Stadion im. Dolena Omurzakova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Abdish-Ata69%

×Draw16%

Altyn Asyr15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abdish-AtaExpected goals in this matchAltyn Asyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.19

Abdish-Ata

2.73

Altyn Asyr

1.19

Abdish-Ata creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

3.60

creates per match

1.57

0.80

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Abdish-Ata

3.60

Altyn Asyr

1.57

allows per match

Abdish-Ata

0.80

Altyn Asyr

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abdish-Ata ↓

Altyn Asyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Abdish-Ata or draw

85%

Abdish-Ata or Altyn Asyr

84%

Draw or Altyn Asyr

31%

Winning margin

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+

48%

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals

93%

Abdish-Ata 2+ goals

75%

Abdish-Ata 3+ goals

50%

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

70%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

33%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)

83%

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abdish-Ata at home — creates 3.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abdish-Ata attack 3.60 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.73

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Abdish-Ata defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Abdish-Ata scores more

69%

level

16%

Altyn Asyr scores more

15%

Abdish-Ata at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff